Page 4 - CII Artha Magazine

Message From Director General

Chandrajit Banerjee, Director General, CII

T he Indian economy has maintained company would range between 75-100 On the domestic front, inflation remains
a significant concern, exacerbated by an
per cent during Q2FY24, which is
a steady economic performance
and adroitly navigated the ongoing global heartening to note. Notably, in the last erratic monsoon, the looming threat of
turmoil through stellar macroeconomic two surveys too, majority of the El Nino, and upward pressure on food
management and policy reforms. The respondents had expected their capacity prices. Another concern is the interest
growth momentum generated during the utilisation to be in range of 75-100 per rates remaining high both domestically
year so far is likely to be sustained as cent, which is an encouraging sign as and globally which has repercussions for
reflected in the performance of high capacity utilisation needs to be the foreign capital flows and rupee
frequency indicators including impressive maintained between 75-80 per cent to trajectory. Against this backdrop, the
GST revenue collections, e-way bills, air fuel fresh investments in the economy. news of India's inclusion in the JP
passenger traffic and UPI transactions, Morgan EM index by next year is a big
among others, which reflects improved The positive momentum of these high positive for mobilising foreign capital.
industrial and commercial activity. frequency indicators got mirrored in the
impressive GDP growth of 7.8 per cent On balance, CII believes that India is
Some more good news is forthcoming seen in the first quarter. India is firmly on track to remain the fastest
from the results of the latest round of well-poised to maintain its status as the growing major economy for the third
the CII Business Outlook Survey for the fastest-growing major economy for the year in a row this fiscal with a real
Jul-Sep quarter which showed a third consecutive fiscal year. Yet, there growth of around 6.5 per cent.
continuation of improvement in the are challenges on the horizon, stemming
business sentiments as the Business from the prevailing global uncertainties.
Confidence Index rose to a The slowdown in major trading partners,
three-quarter high of 67.1 in Q2FY24 as such as the US and EU, has indeed
compared to the reading of 66.1 in the impacted our merchandise exports, and
previous quarter and 62.2 in the same subdued global demand has tempered
quarter last year. FDI flows. Global uncertainties persist,
notably with Brent oil prices reaching
Further, more than half of the US$94/barrel in September and a
respondents of the survey (53 per cent) discernible tightening of global financial Chandrajit Banerjee
expects that capacity utilisation in their conditions. Director General, CII

ANALYSIS, RESEARCH, THOUGHT LEADERSHIP & ADVOCACY 05
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
SEPTEMBER 2023