Page 67 - CII-ARTHA

MARCH 2026

Global Economy in Transition:

Uneven Growth, Trade Realignment

and Policy Divergence

Global Scenario: Resilient but The global growth in 2025 was
with Divergent Headwinds supported by front-loading of goods
trade, monetary policy easing and
Global economic growth has remained broadly sector-specific investment,
resilient in recent years, despite successive especially in AI
disruptions and uncertainties, particularly those
stemming from the US tariff actions and geo-political
conflicts. According to the latest edition of the Global Real GDP Growth (y-o-y%)
International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) World
Economic Outlook (April 2026), global growth 3.8 3.8
remained steady in 2025 at 3.4 per cent level 3.5
(compared to 3.3 per cent in 2024), after successive 3.3 3.4
downward revisions earlier in the cycle reflecting 3.1 3.2
stable demand in major economies and easing
supply-side pressures. However, growth is 2022 2023 2024 2025
structurally weaker than the pre-covid (2010-2019) 2010-18 2026 (P) 2027 (P)
average of 3.8 per cent and is increasingly
1
differentiated across regions, particularly emerging Note: E: Estimated, P: Projected, y-o-y: year-on-year
Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs) . Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (2023);
2
IMF World Economic Outlook April 2026
1 IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2023
2 EMDEs are a diverse group of countries representing major growth potential but face risks, including high debt, currency volatility, and limited
capital access.

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