Page 11 - CII Artha Magazine

Focus Story

Monsoon The correlation between lowest correlation (table 1). the SW monsoon season Breaking down the data

plays a crucial role in
Among the major kharif
rainfall and major kharif crops
further, a sub-sample analysis
replenishing soil moisture
production stands out to be
crops, rice has the strongest
is conducted, spanning three
levels and enhancing reservoir
correlation with monsoon
the highest during the month
distinct periods: 1950-1980,
of July due to the bulk of
capacities. Therefore, SW
rainfall (R²=0.59).
and sowing activities being Interestingly, wheat, a rabi monsoon rainfall holds 1980-2000, and 2000-2022
(see table A.2 for detailed
significance for not only kharif
concentrated during this
results). Notably, the influence
but for the rabi crop as well.
crop, also has a significant
period, whereas rains during
June, the beginning of
of irrigation on overall
positive correlation with
monsoon rains. Rainfall during
monsoon season, displays the
foodgrain production has
Agriculture Table 1: Correlation between Rainfall and Production of Major Kharif Crops grown, while the impact of
rainfall has gradually waned. In
fact, recent years have seen
rainfall not exerting any
Rainfall
significant influence on
foodgrain production.
Production June July August September Total (Jun-Sep)
Historical Perspective Foodgrain 0.18 0.53 0.36 0.45 0.64 This shows that while
agriculture production has
and Future Outlook Foodgrain: Kharif 0.16 0.51 0.34 0.48 0.63 historically relied heavily on
monsoon rainfall, the rise in
access to irrigation facilities
Rice 0.26 0.46 0.35 0.36 0.59 has, over the years, reduced
the dependence of agriculture
on monsoons. This trend is
Coarse cereals
0.01
0.30
0.34
0.41
0.33
S outh-west (SW) monsoon, Figure 1: Rainfall and Kharif Production particularly visible in the case
of rice, which has
spanning from June to
September is the predominant 350.0 Pulses 0.03 0.43 0.28 0.35 0.46 progressively shifted towards
contributor to more than 70 300.0 greater reliance on irrigation,
per cent of nation’s total 250.0 while rainfall no longer
annual precipitation. This 200.0 Oilseeds (Groundnut) 0.18 0.43 0.23 0.36 0.50 influences its production in
rainfall season coincides with the recent years.
the Kharif crop growing 150.0 Wheat 0.15 0.31 0.24 0.20 0.37
period during which major 100.0
crops such as rice, pulses, 50.0 However, despite the
oilseeds, cotton, jute, and Rainfall (mm) Source: CII Research improvement in irrigation
sugarcane are cultivated. These 0.0 Kharif production (mn ton) infrastructure, the extent of
Kharif crops, accounting for 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 land covered under irrigation
about 63 per cent of total Source: IMD and Department of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare Advancements in irrigation trends from 1950 to 2022 is still low, especially for
cropped area, contribute over THE DEPENDENCE OF coarse cereals, pulses, and
55 per cent to the nation’s Figure 2 captures the kharif production. Monsoon indicating that inadequate FOODGRAIN infrastructure can significantly reveals a strong and positive
total foodgrain output. PRODUCTION ON reduce the reliance of impact of irrigation and oilseeds (figure 3). Among
correlation between monsoon rainfall is closely linked to rainfall can have a detrimental agriculture on rainfall. Despite rainfall on the output of coarse cereals, jowar has
rainfall (per cent deviation foodgrain production (0.63) effect on production. RAINFALL HAS
Agricultural production in from LPA) and foodgrain and and kharif production (0.64), DIMINISHED, WHILE the considerable development foodgrains and major kharif shown an increasing
India remains predominantly RELIANCE ON of irrigation facilities over the crops, including rice, jowar, dependence on rainfall over
rainfed, hence, rainfall IRRIGATION HAS years, the extent of land maize, pulses, and oilseeds the years, with the relatively
1
variability results in changes in Figure 2: Correlation between Rainfall and Production INCREASED OVERTIME covered under irrigation (see table A.1). This insignificant role of irrigation
crop production. Instances of in influencing its production.
reduced rainfall have often led Foodgrain Production (yoy%) - Rainfall (% deviation) Kharif Production (yoy%) - Rainfall (% deviation) remains low, especially for underscores the pivotal role
to decreased crop production 20 20 While agricultural production pulses, coarse cereals, and of both rainfall and irrigation Conversely, maize has
(figure 1). 10 10 has historically relied heavily oilseeds (figure 3). in influencing agricultural reduced its reliance on rainfall
0 0 on monsoon rainfall, the production. and has become increasingly
INADEQUATE RAINFALL -20 -10 -10 0 10 20 30 -40 -20 -10 0 20 40 landscape has evolved CII's analysis of foodgrain and reliant on irrigation.
CAN HAVE A -20 -20 significantly over the years. major kharif crop production
DETERIMENTAL EFFECT -30 -30
ON PRODUCTION Source: CII Research 1 The result is based on the regression analysis of kharif crop production on area sown, irrigation and rainfall from 1950 to 2022. The major kharif crops for which the analysis is
conducted are – foodgrains, rice, jowar, maize, pulses and oilseeds. Results of the regression analysis are shown in table A.1.

10 ANALYSIS, RESEARCH, THOUGHT LEADERSHIP & ADVOCACY ANALYSIS, RESEARCH, THOUGHT LEADERSHIP & ADVOCACY 11
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
SEPTEMBER 2023 SEPTEMBER 2023