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Focus Story

 Monsoon  The correlation between   lowest correlation (table 1).   the SW monsoon season   Breaking down the data

                                                               plays a crucial role in
                                    Among the major kharif
         rainfall and major kharif crops
                                                                                          further, a sub-sample analysis
                                                               replenishing soil moisture
         production stands out to be
                                    crops, rice has the strongest
                                                                                          is conducted, spanning three
                                                               levels and enhancing reservoir
                                    correlation with monsoon
         the highest during the month
                                                                                          distinct periods: 1950-1980,
         of July due to the bulk of
                                                               capacities. Therefore, SW
                                    rainfall (R²=0.59).
 and     sowing activities being    Interestingly, wheat, a rabi   monsoon rainfall holds   1980-2000, and 2000-2022
                                                                                          (see table A.2 for detailed
                                                               significance for not only kharif
         concentrated during this
                                                                                          results). Notably, the influence
                                                               but for the rabi crop as well.
                                    crop, also has a significant
         period, whereas rains during
         June, the beginning of
                                                                                          of irrigation on overall
                                    positive correlation with
                                    monsoon rains. Rainfall during
         monsoon season, displays the
                                                                                          foodgrain production has
 Agriculture  Table 1: Correlation between Rainfall and Production of Major Kharif Crops  grown, while the impact of
                                                                                          rainfall has gradually waned. In
                                                                                          fact, recent years have seen
                                                                                          rainfall not exerting any
                                                 Rainfall
                                                                                          significant influence on
                                                                                          foodgrain production.
           Production        June       July     August    September  Total (Jun-Sep)
 Historical Perspective  Foodgrain  0.18  0.53    0.36       0.45        0.64             This shows that while
                                                                                          agriculture production has
 and Future Outlook  Foodgrain: Kharif  0.16  0.51  0.34     0.48        0.63             historically relied heavily on
                                                                                          monsoon rainfall, the rise in
                                                                                          access to irrigation facilities
           Rice              0.26       0.46      0.35       0.36        0.59             has, over the years, reduced
                                                                                          the dependence of agriculture
                                                                                          on monsoons. This trend is
           Coarse cereals
                             0.01
                                                             0.30
                                                  0.34
                                                                         0.41
                                        0.33
 S outh-west (SW) monsoon,   Figure 1: Rainfall and Kharif Production                     particularly visible in the case
                                                                                          of rice, which has
 spanning from June to
 September is the predominant   350.0  Pulses  0.03  0.43  0.28  0.35    0.46             progressively shifted towards
 contributor to more than 70   300.0                                                      greater reliance on irrigation,
 per cent of nation’s total   250.0                                                       while rainfall no longer
 annual precipitation. This   200.0  Oilseeds (Groundnut)  0.18  0.43  0.23  0.36  0.50   influences its production in
 rainfall season coincides with                                                           the recent years.
 the Kharif crop growing   150.0  Wheat  0.15  0.31  0.24    0.20        0.37
 period during which major   100.0
 crops such as rice, pulses,   50.0                                                       However, despite the
 oilseeds, cotton, jute, and   Rainfall (mm)  Source: CII Research                        improvement in irrigation
 sugarcane are cultivated. These   0.0  Kharif production (mn ton)                        infrastructure, the extent of
 Kharif crops, accounting for   1967  1969  1971  1973  1975  1977  1979  1981  1983  1985  1987  1989  1991  1993  1995  1997  1999  2001  2003  2005  2007  2009  2011  2013  2015  2017  2019  2021  land covered under irrigation
 about 63 per cent of total   Source: IMD and Department of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare  Advancements in irrigation   trends from 1950 to 2022   is still low, especially for
 cropped area, contribute over   THE DEPENDENCE OF                                        coarse cereals, pulses, and
 55 per cent to the nation’s   Figure 2 captures the   kharif production. Monsoon   indicating that inadequate   FOODGRAIN   infrastructure can significantly   reveals a strong and positive
 total foodgrain output.   PRODUCTION ON   reduce the reliance of   impact of irrigation and   oilseeds (figure 3). Among
 correlation between monsoon   rainfall is closely linked to   rainfall can have a detrimental   agriculture on rainfall. Despite   rainfall on the output of   coarse cereals, jowar has
 rainfall (per cent deviation   foodgrain production (0.63)   effect on production.  RAINFALL HAS
 Agricultural production in   from LPA) and foodgrain and   and kharif production (0.64),   DIMINISHED, WHILE   the considerable development   foodgrains and major kharif   shown an increasing
 India remains predominantly   RELIANCE ON   of irrigation facilities over the   crops, including rice, jowar,   dependence on rainfall over
 rainfed, hence, rainfall   IRRIGATION HAS   years, the extent of land   maize, pulses, and oilseeds    the years, with the relatively
                                                                                   1
 variability results in changes in   Figure 2: Correlation between Rainfall and Production  INCREASED OVERTIME  covered under irrigation   (see table A.1). This   insignificant role of irrigation
 crop production. Instances of                                                            in influencing its production.
 reduced rainfall have often led   Foodgrain Production (yoy%) - Rainfall (% deviation)  Kharif Production (yoy%) - Rainfall (% deviation)  remains low, especially for   underscores the pivotal role
 to decreased crop production   20  20  While agricultural production   pulses, coarse cereals, and   of both rainfall and irrigation   Conversely, maize has
 (figure 1).  10  10  has historically relied heavily   oilseeds (figure 3).  in influencing agricultural   reduced its reliance on rainfall
 0  0    on monsoon rainfall, the                              production.                and has become increasingly
 INADEQUATE RAINFALL   -20  -10  -10  0  10  20  30  -40  -20  -10  0  20  40  landscape has evolved   CII's analysis of foodgrain and   reliant on irrigation.
 CAN HAVE A   -20  -20  significantly over the years.   major kharif crop production
 DETERIMENTAL EFFECT   -30  -30
 ON PRODUCTION  Source: CII Research  1   The result is based on the regression analysis of kharif crop production on area sown, irrigation and rainfall from 1950 to 2022. The major kharif crops for which the analysis is
         conducted are – foodgrains, rice, jowar, maize, pulses and oilseeds. Results of the regression analysis are shown in table A.1.

 10  ANALYSIS, RESEARCH, THOUGHT LEADERSHIP & ADVOCACY                                ANALYSIS, RESEARCH, THOUGHT LEADERSHIP & ADVOCACY  11
                                                                                           QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
 SEPTEMBER 2023                                                                                      SEPTEMBER 2023
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