Page 12 - CII Artha Magazine

The East and Northeast This delayed progress is of
REGIONAL regions have received deficient SOWING DELAYS, particular concern for pulses,
Figure 3: Area Covered under Irrigation for Major Kharif Crops (%) DISPARITIES WITH rainfall of 18.1 per cent below INFLATION SURGES with arhar and moong
DIVERSE MONTHLY its LPA. The South Peninsula AS A RESULT OF experiencing a decrease in
70.0 MONSOON
PATTERNS IN has also received deficient VARIABILITY growth of 4.9 per cent and 6
60.0 MONSOON rainfall of 7 per cent below its per cent, respectively
LPA. The Central region has compared to the previous
50.0 received rainfall of 0.3 per Insufficient rainfall, particularly year. Among coarse cereals,
The distribution of rainfall cent above its LPA and the during the month of August, jowar displayed lack of sowing
remains uneven across regions has significantly hindered the
40.0 Rice with varying levels of Northwest region has timely sowing of the majority progress, registering a 9.6 per
received 0.4 per cent rainfall
cent decline.
30.0 deficiency during the SW above its LPA (figure 5). of kharif crops (figure 7).
Jowar monsoon.
20.0
Bajra
Figure 7: Sowing Progress of Kharif Crops, (y-o-y%)
10.0 Figure 5: Rainfall Across Regions during SW Monsoon
Maize
6.0
0.0 All India -5.5 4.0 3.8
Pulses 1.9
1950-51 1953-54 1956-57 1959-60 1962-63 1965-66 1968-69 1971-72 1974-75 1977-78 1980-81 1983-84 1986-87 1989-90 1992-93 1995-96 1998-99 2001-02 2004-05 2007-08 2010-11 2013-14 2016-17 2019-20 Oilseed East and North East -18.1 0.3 2.0 0.5
Central
0.0
North West 0.4 -2.0 -1.3 -1.6
Source: Department of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare
South Peninsula -7.0 -4.0
-6.0 -4.9
-20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 -6.0
-8.0
Pulses, while showing a trend 30 (end of SW monsoon), this season had a delayed onset, could not be sustained in Source: IMD -10.0 -8.5
towards greater reliance on year, India has received 820.0 resulting in insufficient rainfall August, as the month was Rice Jowar Bajra Maize Arhar Urad Moong Oilseeds
irrigation, still maintains a mm of monsoon rainfall, in June, which was 8.7 per cent marked by a dry spell with just
significant dependence on representing 6 per cent below the LPA. Nevertheless, 163 mm of rainfall, a stark 35.8 Aside from regional disparities, receiving surplus rainfall, Source: Department of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare
rainfall, although this has deviation from its long-period July witnessed a significant per cent below the LPA. The the variability of rainfall is also except for the East and
diminished over time. Oilseeds average (LPA). Figure 4 plots recovery, with a generous 316 month of September is evident in distinct monthly Northeast, which continued to
also continue to rely the All-India cumulative rainfall mm of rainfall, approximately bringing some relief with patterns. Different regions experience a significant deficit
significantly on monsoon rains, deviation from LPA during SW 12.5 per cent above the LPA. rainfall of 13.5 per cent above exhibit divergent rainfall of 33 per cent below LPA.
with irrigation playing a limited monsoon. The monsoon This positive trend, however, the LPA. patterns during various phases August saw the East and The adverse impact of facilities (only 11 per cent
role in recent years. deficient rainfall is also seen on area covered under
of the monsoon (figure 6). The Northeast regions receiving pulses due to inadequate irrigation). In contrast, rice
Northwestern region received normal rainfall, while other
Hence, it can be surmised that abundance of rainfall at the areas grappled with a dry spell, coverage of irrigated land has remained resilient to
the dependence of foodgrain outset of the monsoon season resulting in substantial deficits (only 23 per cent) under its deficient rainfall with positive
production on rainfall has Figure 4: All-India Cumulative Rainfall (% from LPA) in June. On the other hand, the in precipitation for these cultivation (figure 8). Similarly, sowing progress due to the
markedly diminished, while 20.0 other parts of India witnessed regions. In contrast, September the progress of sowing has wide availability of irrigation
reliance on irrigation has 10.0 a delayed onset of monsoon, witnessed ample rainfall in been slow in the case of jowar facilities, covering a substantial
increased, particularly in the with the South Peninsula South Peninsula and Central due to lack of irrigation 65 per cent of the area.
case of rice and maize. 0.0 experiencing a severe deficit of regions, but East and
However, jowar, pulses, and 45 per cent below its LPA. July Northeast region received
oilseeds remain largely -10.0 marked a resurgence of the highly deficient rainfall.
rain-fed, suggesting a need for -20.0 monsoon, with all regions Figure 8: Percent Coverage of Irrigated Area
enhanced investment in
irrigation infrastructure to -30.0 100%
reduce dependence on -40.0 Figure 6: Spatial and Temporal Distribution of SW Monsoon Rainfall
monsoons. (% deviation from LPA) 80%
-50.0 50.0 60% 65
30.0
SW MONSOON ENDS -60.0 10.0 40%
AT 6 PER CENT -70.0 -10.0 20% 29.3 23.1 31.9
DEFICIT FROM ITS -30.0 0% 11.1 15.2 7.9
LPA 01-Jun-23 12-Jun-23 23-Jun-23 04-Jul-23 15-Jul-23 26-Jul-23 06-Aug-23 17-Aug-23 28-Aug-23 08-Sep-23 19-Sep-23 30-Sep-23 -50.0 Rice Jowar Bajra Maize Arhar Pulses Oilseeds
-70.0
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jun
Jun
Aug
Jul
South Aug Sept North West Sept Jun East and Aug Sept Jun Central Aug Sept Jun All India Aug Sept % coverage of Irrigated Area
India has overall experienced Source: IMD Peninsula Northeast
normal monsoon rainfall in Source: IMD Source: Department of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare
recent years. As of September
12 ANALYSIS, RESEARCH, THOUGHT LEADERSHIP & ADVOCACY ANALYSIS, RESEARCH, THOUGHT LEADERSHIP & ADVOCACY 13
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
SEPTEMBER 2023 SEPTEMBER 2023