Page 14 - CII Artha Magazine
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The overall consequence of                                                                                             Summing Up
        insufficient rainfall is delayed          Figure 9: CPI Inflation Across Major Food Articles in August 2023 (y-o-y%)                                Appendix A
        sowing progress, particularly for
        crops having inadequate          35.0                                 32.2                                             There has been a huge disparity
        irrigation facilities. Moreover,                                                                                       in the distribution of monsoon     Table A.1: Regression results of crop production on irrigation and rainfall
        inadequate rainfall has          30.0                                                                                  rainfall across regions. August’s
        intensified inflationary         25.0                                                                                  dry spell is of particular                                                                   Oilseeds
        pressures. This inflationary                                                                                           concern as it led to delayed   Independent    Foodgrains  Rice    Jowar    Maize    Pulses  (Groundnut)
        surge is most pronounced in      20.0         17.3                                                                     sowing of kharif crops like    variables
                                                                                                                                                                                         Log
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Log
                                                                                                                                                                               Log
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Log
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Log
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Log
        the case of pulses, with arhar   15.0                                                                                  pulses and jowar, which could                 (Pfoodgrain)  (Price)  (Pjowar)  (Pmaize)  (Ppulses)  (Poilseed)
        experiencing a staggering 32.2        12.5                                                                             impact crop production and
        per cent increase in inflation   10.0                          8.4            6.8      9.2                             yield. Crops like rice, which   c              -7.17 ***  -9.94 ***  -4.71 ***  -5.82 ***  -5.13 ***  -6.67 ***
        due to delay in its sowing                             5.9                                                             have benefitted from irrigation,                   ***      ***      ***      ***      ***       ***
        (figure 9). In the case of coarse   5.0                                                        1.8                     have remained resilient.       Log(areasown)    1.04     1.83     1.38     2.26     1.37      0.29
        cereals, jowar has experienced a   0.0                                                                                 Insufficient rainfall has also   Log(irrigation)  1.20 ***  1.44 ***  0.99 ***  0.28 *  0.44 ***  0.24 ***
        significant inflation rate of 17.3    Rice    Jowar    Bajra  Maize   Arhar  Urad    Moong    Oilseeds
        per cent, attributed to its                                                                                            contributed to inflation,      Log(rain)        0.43 ***  0.26 ***  0.24   0.24     0.34 ***  1.08 ***
        delayed sowing progress and                                    Source: MoSPI                                           especially among pulses and
        lack of irrigation facilities.                                                                                         coarse cereals, which can      R 2              0.99      0.98     0.81    0.96     0.87      0.77
                                                                                                                               potentially impact food security.
                                                                                                                               The presence of El Nino raises   Adjusted R 2   0.99      0.98     0.80    0.95     0.86      0.76
                                    Historically, the presence of El   experiencing inadequate   to deficient rainfall. In cases   concerns about future rainfall
          INTENSIFYING EL           Nino has been associated with   rainfall is notably high,   where rainfall has remained    patterns that can further have   Source: CII Research
          NINO RAISES               a weakened monsoon season,   particularly in the presence of   within the normal range or   an adverse effect on crop
          CONCERNS                  often resulting in below   a strong or moderate El Nino   above normal, the El Nino's      production, yield and inflation
                                    average or deficient rainfall.   event (figure 10). 67 per cent   strength has been relatively   rates.                             Table A.2: Sub-sample regression results of crop production
                                    The probability of        of such occurrences have led   weak.                                                                                     on irrigation and rainfall
        This year, the El Nino                                                                                                 While Indian agriculture has
        phenomenon developed in July                                                                                           made significant strides in                                                                  Oilseeds
        and remained relatively weak                          Figure 10: Rainfall During El Nino Years                         reducing its reliance on       Independent    Foodgrains  Rice    Jowar    Maize    Pulses  (Groundnut)
        during the month. However, its          20.0                                                                           monsoon rainfall through       variables
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Log
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Log
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Log
                                                                                                                                                                                         Log
                                                                                                                                                                               Log
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Log
        influence became evident in                                                                                            increased irrigation for                      (Pfoodgrain)  (Price)  (Pjowar)  (Pmaize)  (Ppulses)  (Poilseed)
        August with notable deficit in          10.0                                                                           foodgrain production, this
        rainfall across India. According         0.0                                                                           transition isn't uniform across                                1950-1980
        to IMD, El Nino phenomenon                                                                                             all crops. Major crops like
        is expected to transition to           -10.0                                                                           coarse cereals, pulses and     c               -9.15 ***  -9.01 ***  -2.97 *  -1.03  -2.18 **  -5.70 ***
        moderate strength in                                                                                                   oilseeds remain susceptible to   Log(areasown)  1.96 ***  2.38 ***  1.08 ***  1.91 ***  0.76 ***  0.61 ***
        September, with the potential          -20.0                                                                           monsoon variability due to
        to strengthen further by               -30.0                                                                           limited coverage of irrigation   Log(irrigation)  0.68 ***  0.43 ***  0.96 ***  -0.19 *  -0.34 ***  0.16 ***
        December. These                             1952  1953  1954  1958  1959  1964  1966  1969  1970  1973  1977  1978  1980  1983  1987  1988  1992  1995  1998  2003  2005  2007  2010  2016  2019  which presents a significant
        developments raise concerns                                                                                            challenge.                     Log(rain)        0.31 ***  0.36 ***  0.11   0.01     0.43 ***  0.87 ***
        about the potential                                      Strong  Moderate  Weak
        consequences for rainfall in                                Source: IMD and NOAA                                       Given the rising unpredictability                              1980-2000
        the months ahead.                                                                                                      of monsoons due to climate
                                                                                                                               change, substantial investments   c            -7.28 ***  -10.3 ***  -2.64  -9.67 ***  -5.49 ***  -5.28 ***
                                                                                                                               in expanding irrigation                            *        ***      ***      ***      ***       **
        Previous episodes of El Nino   moderate level by September                                                             infrastructure are critical for   Log(areasown)  0.99    2.01     1.13     4.53     1.12      1.09
        have typically resulted in falling   this year, the outlook for   Figure 11: Agriculture GVA, Kharif Production and Yield during El Nino years  ensuring food security and   ***   ***      **                ***       **
        agricultural GVA and severely   rainfall remains a cause for                                                           stable agriculture production in   Log(irrigation)  1.25  1.05    0.47     0.15     0.38      0.44
        impacted kharif production   concern. It is highly likely that   20.0                                                  the future. There is a need for
        and yield (refer figure 11). In   India may experience below   10.0                                                    targeted irrigation expansion   Log(rain)       0.45 ***  0.43 *   0.17    0.47 **  0.53 **   0.55 *
        majority of these cases, low   normal or deficient rainfall in   0.0                                                   for vulnerable crops to reduce
        kharif production and yield   the coming months with   -10.0                                                           their susceptibility to monsoon                                2000-2022
        have often been associated   potentially adverse effects on                                                            variability. Other measures like   c           -8.04 ***  -6.01 ***  -5.36 ***  -4.17 ***  -4.53 ***  -9.65 ***
        with moderate or strong    agriculture GVA, kharif    -20.0                                                            crop diversification, efficient
        intensity of El Nino.      production and yield.      -30.0                                                            water management practices,    Log(areasown)    1.66 ***  0.63 **  1.03 ***  1.68 ***  1.29 ***  0.87
                                                                   1969  1970  1973  1977  1978  1980  1983  1987  1988  1992  1995  1998  2003  2005  2007  2010  2016  2019  inflation management, and
        Given the current expectation                                                                                          investing in climate-resilient   Log(irrigation)  1.17 ***  1.85 ***  0.38  0.67 **  0.42 ***  0.57
        of El Nino phenomenon                                       Agriculture GVA(%)  Kharif Production (yoy%)  Kharif Yield (yoy%)  agriculture practices are pivotal
        potentially intensifying to a                                    Source: Department of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare  for mitigating the risk of erratic   Log(rain)  0.14     0.11    0.63 ***  0.21    0.29 **   1.23 **
                                                                                                                               monsoon and safeguarding food
                                                                                                                               security in face of monsoon    Source: CII Research
                                                                                                                               uncertainties.
        14   ANALYSIS, RESEARCH, THOUGHT LEADERSHIP & ADVOCACY                                                                                                                                               ANALYSIS, RESEARCH, THOUGHT LEADERSHIP & ADVOCACY  15
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