Page 12 - CII Artha Magazine
P. 12

Domestic Trends



 For one, rising inflation across   Engagement Group of G-20   gap would be premature at   effective in emerging and   Hence, India and the other   are among the foremost   areas namely (i) Supporting   framework to align economic
 the globe, associated with the   which has reported that   this stage considering that   frontier markets where public   G20 members should work   agenda items of India at the   MSMEs, (ii) Infrastructure   growth with development   The
 recent geopolitical situation, is   several nations of the Global   economic slowdown has   resources and donor funds   towards catalysing sustainable   G20. Recognising this, the Task   focus, (iii) Health   priorities which in turn would
 putting pressure on   South are likely to fall short   impacted revenue generation   are limited. For example, a   finance to meet the climate   Force of the B-20, an   infrastructure, (iv) Technology   help build a coordinated
 households, industry, and   of their 2030 sustainable   capabilities of nations.   hugely successful healthcare   targets, food security and the   engagement group of G-20,   advancement, (v) Climate   response for sustainable
 governments and constraining   development goals (SDGs) on   Moreover, the spending   blended financing entity called   broader SDG goals. Similarly,   has been set up, under India’s   financing, and (vi) Sustainable   economic recovery.  Employment
 resource availability.    account of the funding crunch.  priorities to tackle the health   Sustainable Access to Markets   G-20 countries could also   Presidency, which is focused   Energy.
 In fact, the funds constraint   and social emergencies of the   and Resources for Innovative   work towards drawing up a   on “Financing for Global   [Note: Mr Kotak is the Chair of the
 Second, the monetary   could stymie investment   pandemic has further limited   Delivery of Healthcare   common framework for   Economic Recovery’. The Task   India and the other G20   B20 Taskforce on ‘Financing for Global
 tightening measures and the   the fiscal space. This in turn   (Samridh), involved in   aligning SDG finance with a   force would suggest the ways   members have the potential   Economic Recovery’]
 high interest rates in the   leaves governments with even   strengthening India’s health   set of guidelines, policies and   and means of addressing the   to play a pivotal role in   Challenge
 developed countries are   fewer fiscal resources for   systems, has impacted 25   tools as well as establishing   gaps in financing and suggest   catalysing sustainable finance
 forcing Central banks even in   meeting the SDGs. Hence   million people since 2020 and   common standards and rules   new and innovative financing   to meet the broader SDG
 the emerging economies to   there is a need to put in place   has deployed over US$16   that can support inclusive and   techniques for SDGs. The Task   goals. It is hoped that the
 pull their monetary policy   innovative financial   million in philanthropic funds   sustainable growth.  Force has identified its   B-20 Group would come out
 levers and raise interest rates   instruments which would   to over 60 social enterprises   priorities for making   with specific
 to stem capital outflows. This   fund sustainable development   through both grant and debt   Fostering financial inclusion   recommendations on SDGs   recommendations and
 is raising borrowing costs   needs.   financing provisions. Similarly,   and financing global recovery   financing across six broad   provide a comprehensive   that the overall employment
 thereby limiting the funding   especially in sectors like   blended finance could also be                                     T   o achieve equitable    in India increased by a healthy
                                                                                                                                   economic growth and to
 options for inclusive growth.   infrastructure -both physical   The role of multilateral   instrumental in bringing           broaden consumption        86 million in the five-year   76 per cent (19 million) of   of the pandemic has
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 accentuated the rise in casual
                                                                                                                                                                                     the increase of 25 million
 and social- which is one of   institutions, including   innovative solutions to                                               demand, adequate job       period between 2017-18 and   addition to jobs coming from   jobs.
 Third, countries are finding   the main drivers of   multilateral development   finance global challenges such                opportunities for those who   2021-22, translating into   casual jobs. Construction
 themselves in a very difficult   sustainable growth in the   banks, is vital for addressing   as climate change and green     choose to work is critical. It is   employed people to working   sector which traditionally is   The below schematic diagram
 situation due to capital flight   emerging markets after the   the funding gaps and   transition. Such examples               also important for meeting   age population ratio rising   known to employ bulk of the   captures the labour market
                                                                                                                                                          from 47 per cent to 53 per
 from their countries as   COVID-19 crisis. Similarly,   complementing efforts of   could also be emulated by                  the aspirations of India’s   cent in the comparable   casual workers in the       dynamics in India, with the
 foreign fund managers and   sectors such as MSMEs and   national governments   other countries. Emphasis                      youth and for inclusive    period. To estimate the above   economy continued to   first diagram capturing the
                                                                                                                               development.
 investors are exiting from   small businesses are also   towards financing green and   should be given to capacity                                       numbers, only working age   contribute most to this head.   absolute employment in
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2021-22 and the second one
                                                                                                                                                                                     Additionally, the rise in
 emerging markets to reap the   impacted by financial   inclusive recovery. Multilateral   building of domestic financial      Employment-unemployment    population (15+ years) has   MNREGA public works       capturing the net change in
 dividends from higher interest   constraints which are   banks may be encouraged to   sectors for achieving                   estimates remain an        been considered.           programme amidst rural      the five-year period of
 rates in the advanced   preventing them from   play a greater role in   sustainable development                               important barometer of the                            distress during the two years   2017-18 to 2021-22.
 countries. This is resulting in   expanding their business and   providing financing including   objectives.                  health of the Indian economy.   The above-mentioned gain in
                                                                                                                                                          employment is attributable to
 shortage of capital in   contributing to economic   in alignment with private                                                 The government has initiated   an increase of 25 million in
 resource constrained   activity.  sector financing or extending   Similarly, innovative financing                             many surveys in the past   jobs and 62 million in the self-           Labour market dynamics
                                                                                                                               which provide a snapshot of
 emerging economies.   technical assistance through   models are needed in areas                                               the employment levels in the   employed category. Hence,
 Under the circumstances, it   innovative financing models.  such as providing credit to                                       economy, the latest one being   essentially, the sharp rise in
 Fourth, many low-income and   would be a formidable task   MSMEs on cost effective                                            the annual PLFS (Period    employment numbers was       Absolute numbers in 2021-22  Net change five-year period (FY18-FY22)
 developing economies are   for economies across the   terms, developing inclusive                                             Labour Force Survey) since   mainly led by a sharp rise in   Working age population  Working age population
 also experiencing high levels   world to secure the vast   and smart digital                                                  2017-18. The results of the   the self-employed category,     865.7 mn                   72 mn
                                                                                                                                                          with net jobs contributing
 of debt due to a resource   resources required for green   infrastructure, encouraging                                        fifth round of the survey were   only 29 per cent in the total
 crunch caused by the global   investments such as clean   sustainable disaster resilient                                      recently released for 2021-22.  pie.                         Labour Force             Labour Force
 uncertainty and the lingering   energy and climate mitigating   infrastructure, promoting                                     Now that we have a                                            478.0 mn                  82.7 mn
 impact of the pandemic.  infrastructure. After all, with   investments in renewable and                                       reasonable time series of five   The sharp rise in
 only seven years left to   sustainable energy while                                                                           years, this article tries to   self-employment category is   Employed  Unemployed  Employed  Unemployed
 The inability to generate   achieve Agenda 2030 for   Besides, the involvement of   moving towards achieving                  assess the extent of job   attributed to increase in     458.0 mn   20 mn          86.5 mn    -4.0 mn
 requisite resources, especially   sustainable development,   the private sector is critical as   energy security, among others.   creation between 2017-18   self-employment in
                                                                                                                                                          agriculture to the tune of 42.8
 by the low income and   stepping up sustainable   it has the potential to come                                                and 2021-22.               million in the five-year period,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jobs
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Jobs
 emerging economies, would   finance has become   up with innovative financing   India’s G20 leadership has                                               translating into a share of   Self-employed  202 mn   Self-employed  25 mn
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   62 mn
                                                                                                                                                                                        256 mn
 come in the way of putting in   imperative to finance an   techniques for bridging the   come at a critical juncture          I. The overall             more than 70 per cent to the
 place the financial   equitable and durable global   SDG financing gap. In fact,   when the world economy is                  employment                 overall increase in
 architecture for achieving   recovery.   bringing in private capital   at an inflexion point and is                                                      self-employed workers.        Regular/Salaried  Casual  Regular/Salaried  Casual
 broad-based growth. This is   through green and social   looking for credible solutions                                       numbers                                                       98 mn    104 mn           5.6 mn   19 mn
 also corroborated by a policy   Relying on the governments   financial instruments such as   to achieve sustainable growth.                              With regard to pattern of job   Source: Various rounds of PLFS and CII Research
                                                                                                                                                          creation, the trend clearly
 brief by the Think 20   alone for bridging the funding   blended finance can be very
                                                                                                                               Our estimates using the    shifted in favour of casual jobs
                                                                                                                               annual PLFS survey shows   during this period, with nearly
        12   ANALYSIS, RESEARCH, THOUGHT LEADERSHIP & ADVOCACY                                                                                                                                               ANALYSIS, RESEARCH, THOUGHT LEADERSHIP & ADVOCACY  13
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
             QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
             MAY 2023                                                                                                                                                                                                          MAY 2023
   7   8   9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17