Page 27 - CII Artha Magazine

Global Trends

to ASER 2023, 79.5 per cent of The poor states and the dividends from demographic lifting millions of people out of T he world, in the past and slip to 2.8 per cent in
children in Class III were underprivileged class have transition. This would rely poverty. two decades has gone 2023, before rising again to 3.0
unable to read texts of Class II been the worst sufferers due largely on putting in place the through successive shocks per cent in 2024. The growth
ranging from the Global
in 2022. The number was to lack of digital access such right policies and perspectives Hence, meeting the funding financial crisis, Covid-19 forecast has been downgraded
by 0.1 percentage points from
lower at 72.7 per cent in 2018, as smart phones, data costs, which would help produce a needs of education by raising pandemic, war in Ukraine and the projections released in
though this reading too is also mobile connectivity, screen future ready workforce in the public expenditure in quality the aggressive monetary January 2023, marking the
not salutary. Similarly, 74.1 per time, etc which has country. Education and education to at least 6 per policy stance adopted by the weakest growth profile since
cent of students in Class III accentuated the digital divide training are both strategic cent of GDP at the Central central banks across the 2001 barring the deceleration MAJOR ECONOMIES
globe to tame inflationary
found difficulty in doing and learning loss between necessities that will deliver level and supplementing it pressures as a consequence witnessed due to global WITNESSING A
financial crisis and the
subtraction in 2022 as against citizens. employment-enhancing skills, with state spending on of the war. All these pandemic. SLOWDOWN IN
71.8 per cent in 2018 thereby in turn increasing productivity education assumes critical developments have weighed
confirming the ‘learning loss’ To conclude, it needs to be and employability of the importance for realizing India’s heavily on the outlook of the The downgrade comes amid GROWTH
experienced on account of realized that India’s education workforce and accelerate the untapped potential growth. developed as well as the financial sector turmoil,
school closures during the system needs a significant future economic growth of developing economies. high inflation, ongoing effects have been due to an panic triggered by bank
pandemic. improvement to reap rich the country, in the process of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine improved outlook for China’s collapses in the US.
and the pandemic. However,
UNCERTAINITY IN the multilateral agency, recovery from the pandemic
GLOBAL expects the slowdown to be and better growth prospects As the central banks across
ENVIRONMENT less pronounced than seen in the US. However, the the world simultaneously hike
PROMPTING previously anticipated, due to bank has warned that turmoil interest rates in response to
inflation, the global economies
MULTILATERAL the ‘surprisingly resilient’ in the banking sector and are witnessing a slowdown in
higher oil prices could again
ORGANISATIONS demand in the US and Europe, exert pressure on growth growth.
easing of energy costs and the
TO SLASH GROWTH strong rebound of the prospects, later this year.
FORECASTS Chinese economy post its US economy slowed to 0.9
re-opening. Some of the high-frequency per cent in Q4 2022 as the
World Bank, too, in its latest global indicators point in the lagged impact of federal
As a result, a slew of Global Economic Prospects direction of an improvement reserve rate hikes worked
multilateral organizations report, has projected the noted in the outlook of global through. The slowdown in the
including the International global economy to slow from growth in the recent months, fourth quarter was driven by
Monetary Fund (IMF) have 2.9 per cent in 2022 to 2.0 with signs of growth deceleration in private
slashed its growth forecasts per cent in 2023, revising the bottoming out. As per the consumption. Business
across geographies. As per its growth projections upwards latest data available, global spending also slowed,
April forecast, IMF now from 1.7 per cent anticipated composite PMI increased to suggesting that the economy
expects the global growth to in January 2023. The upward 53.4 in March 2023, reflecting lost momentum at the end of
come at 3.4 per cent in 2022 revisions in global growth a broad-based pickup across 2022. As a result, the full year
geographies. This was growth for the world’s largest
primarily led by robust economy came at 2.1 per
performance witnessed in the cent in 2022 against 6.1 per
Global growth trajectory (y-o-y%)
services sector. cent growth last year.
However, due to a rebound in
Country/Region 2022 2023 2024 Global commodity prices also goods purchases and a solid
(Forecast) (Forecast) traded with a softening bias in increase in services

United States 2.1 1.6 1.1 March as expectations of consumption, US economy is
prolonged monetary said to have grown 1.6 per
Euro Area 3.5 0.8 1.4 tightening in advanced cent in Q12023.
Japan 1.1 1.3 1.0 economies dampened the
demand outlook. Crude oil Further, despite high interest
Emerging and 4.0 3.9 4.2 stood at US$78.4 per barrel rates, its labour market
Developing in March on demand remained fairly resilient. Its
Economies concerns. OPEC+ recent unemployment rate stood at
announcement of a cut in oil 3.5 per cent in March 2023
Brazil 2.9 0.9 1.5 production could turn out to and the employment levels
China 3.0 5.2 4.5 be risky for the global rose by 577 thousand to
economy, as it may push up 160.89 million during the
India 6.8 5.9 6.3 already higher prices. Gold month. The labour force
World 3.4 2.8 3.0 prices too remained volatile participation rate also inched
in the wake of strengthening higher to 62.6 per cent,
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2023 US Dollar, increased rate hike highest since March 2020.
expectations and market

26 ANALYSIS, RESEARCH, THOUGHT LEADERSHIP & ADVOCACY ANALYSIS, RESEARCH, THOUGHT LEADERSHIP & ADVOCACY 27
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
MAY 2023 MAY 2023